Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.7%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 horas
Desactualizado17 jun 26, 0:31 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Elon Musk be charged with a crime in Spain or France?
KalshiWill JD Vance be charged with a crime by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
KalshiWill any Supreme Court Justice be charged with a federal crime?
KalshiWill the Hawk Tuah girl Hailey Welch be charged with a financial crime by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one of Merrick Garland or Jack Smith be charged with a federal crime by 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
Resolves according to: Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any AI or LLM by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.
- The charge or indictment of a company or organization behind the AI or large language model will not be sufficient.
- Charges or indictments must be of the AI or LLM itself.
Comparación de fuentes de predicción
Mercados abiertos
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket]?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket]?
- Está previsto que Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket] se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket]?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves according to: Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
- ¿Dónde más está listado Will AI be charged with a crime before 2027? [Polymarket]?
- La misma pregunta también está listada en Polymarket.