Will a US House seat flip from Democrat to Republican in a 2027 special election?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 76.3%
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado21 oct 26, 5:35 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will a US House seat flip from Republican to Democrat in a 2027 special election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2027 Minnesota Senate Special Election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the U.S. House seat for Minnesota's 1st Congressional District in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will run for a lower house seat at the next Australian federal election?
Manifold MarketsMississippi Senate winner?
KalshiReglas
This market resolves YES if a special election for a US House seat is completed in 2027 and the winner is a Republican, where the seat's vacating member was a Democrat (see definitions).
- When an election counts as "in 2027":
- - The election that actually fills the seat must take place between January 1 and December 31, 2027 (inclusive).
- - This can be a special general election, a runoff, or a special primary or all-party first round in which one candidate wins outright by majority and so fills the seat.
- - A special election whose primary or first round is in 2027 but which needs a general election or runoff in 2028 does not count.
- - The vacancy may have arisen at any time, including before 2027.
