Will a US House seat flip from Republican to Democrat in a 2027 special election?
One-OffPolítica de EE. UU.ElecciónPolítica1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 72.7%
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2
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado21 oct 26, 5:42 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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This market resolves YES if a special election for a US House seat is completed in 2027 and the winner is a Democrat, where the seat's vacating member was a Republican (see definitions).
- When an election counts as "in 2027":
- - The election that actually fills the seat must take place between January 1 and December 31, 2027 (inclusive).
- - This can be a special general election, a runoff, or a special primary or all-party first round in which one candidate wins outright by majority and so fills the seat.
- - A special election whose primary or first round is in 2027 but which needs a general election or runoff in 2028 does not count.
- - The vacancy may have arisen at any time, including before 2027.
