Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 63.7%
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15
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado19 mar 24, 20:05 UTC2 ene 30, 7:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident.
- Directed attacks (such as a nation-state executing an AI-powered cyberattack) are excluded, as the damage in those cases is intended by human operators.
- Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify as a rogue AI, there must be a loss of control over the AI system.
- This excludes directed and intentional attacks where the AI is operating under the control and intent of its deployers.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volumen total
- 241,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 128 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 349,4 mil €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 64% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030??
- Está previsto que Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident.