Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
IAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 95.7%
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado31 ago 23, 19:40 UTC1 ene 29, 6:59 UTC
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The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are: Penguin Random House
- HarperCollins
- Simon & Schuster
- The novel must be purported to be written by a human, but turn out to have been mostly* written by AI.
- What counts as "mostly" written by AI? As noted in the comments, it is unlikely that we would ever know exactly what percentage of the words in the final draft originated with the human author vs the AI, so there is a very high likelihood of considerable ambiguity.
- I will use my best judgement, taking into account opinions expressed in the comments, to resolve this fairly.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 96% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028??
- Está previsto que Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are: Penguin Random House