[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
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Actualizado hace 5 minutos
7 nov 23, 0:06 UTC2 feb 50, 20:31 UTC
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By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/8404/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI.
- For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed here.
- If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 68% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI??
- Está previsto que [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI? se resuelva el 2 de febrero de 2050.
- ¿Cómo se liquida [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?