Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopolíticaMiddle East22dManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 88.9%
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21
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binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado31 jul 26, 3:43 UTC1 oct 26, 0:00 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it.
- A ceasefire counts even if it later collapses.
- The question is whether one takes effect inside the window - not whether it holds.
- RESOLUTION SOURCES (priority order):
- English Wikipedia, "2026 Iran war" - whether the article records a US-Iran ceasefire taking effect within the window
- Al Jazeera (aljazeera.com)
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 89% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026??
- Está previsto que Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? se resuelva el 1 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it.