Will "A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffIA4mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 86.7%
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Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado22 jul 26, 14:58 UTC1 feb 27, 0:00 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI progress and public alarm is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abiertos
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- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
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- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
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- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will "A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 87% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will "A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Está previsto que Will "A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will "A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.