Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualOther 37.1%Líder entre 19 opciones
Pronosticadores
41
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-16.9 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado15 sept 23, 17:01 UTC2 jul 30, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0%
0%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiReglas
Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners.
- Probability mass is distributed evenly among all winners.
- This will resolve to the real name of the winners, nothing else.
- If someone puts a duplicate option, it will resolve to the first option.
Mercados abiertos
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 57,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 85,9 mil €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.5pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,7 M €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 175.3%
- 221.8%
- 3-0.1pt2%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+2.0pt88%
- Before 203082%
- Before 2029+5.1pt53%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 233,1 mil €
KALSHIUS grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- No95%
- Yes-1.4pt5%
- Volumen total
- 675,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,9 mil €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+12.5pt88.1%
- Yes-12.5pt11.9%
- Volumen total
- 10,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,7 mil €
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- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
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- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan before 2030?
- Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Other al 37% a fecha de 10 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals??
- Está previsto que Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals? se resuelva el 2 de julio de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Each winner resolves to 25% assuming there are 4 winners.