Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoAviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 11 jul 2026, 12:20 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Pronóstico comunitario actualJ. D. Vance 83.5%Líder entre 21 opciones
Pronosticadores
59
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 días
Desactualizado10 oct 23, 15:0517 jun 28, 6:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Ron Desantis52%
Comparar plataformas· J. D. Vance
Ordenado por calidad de mercado, luego liquidez y volumen de 24 h| Plataforma | Calidad | Probabilidad | vs. referencia | Vol 24h | Liq | Actualidad | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMejor en general88% de coincidencia · verificado | Media | 78% | — | 1,5 mil € | 143,6 mil € | hace 16 minutos | Abrir → |
| Manifold MarketsEsta página | — | 84% | — | — | — | hace 16 días |
También disponible en Kalshi
Who will run for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1.0 pts1a
78%
-3.0pt70%
+2.0pt62%
+31 resultados más
67 • Calidad mediaSpread moderadoAlta liquidez
Volumen total344,8 mil €
Volumen 24h1,5 mil €
KALSHIReglas
This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES.
- The criteria here are:
- The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.
Las probabilidades pueden diferir debido a diferentes estructuras de mercado, comisiones y grupos de participantes.
Tendencia de volumen
$269 jul3d de datos11 jul
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This market uses the new Unlinked Multiple Choice format.
- The probabilites of each answer are independent of the other answers.
- Individual answers can resolve early, while the market as a whole remains open.
- Any person who appears in Wikipedia's "major candidates" section, at any time, for the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries will resolve YES.
- The criteria here are:
- The candidates in this section have declared their candidacies and meet one or more of the following criteria: campaign has received substantial major media coverage; current or previous holder of significant elected office (president, vice president, governor, U.S. senator, U.S. representative); have been included in at least five national polls.