Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualJD Vance 74.9%Líder entre 13 opciones
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado9 mar 25, 4:35 UTC2 jun 28, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republican presidential candidate endorsed by Trump win the 2028 Republican primaries?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a woman win the Republican Primaries?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
Kalshi2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiTexas Senate winner?
KalshiReglas
For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%.
- In previous years, according to realclearpolling.com, the candidates who would have met this criteria were:
- 2024: Donald Trump, the named outcome, the named outcome
- 2020: Donald Trump
- 2016: Donald Trump, the named outcome, Ben Carson, John Kasich, the named outcome, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul
- 2012: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann
