Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualGavin Newsom 86.8%Líder entre 18 opciones
Pronosticadores
29
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado9 mar 25, 4:26 UTC2 jun 28, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%.
- In previous years, according to realclearpolling.com, the candidates who would have met this criteria were:
- 2024: Joe Biden, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 2020: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Mike Bloomberg, the named outcome, the named outcome
- 2016: Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders
- 2012: [no data, presumably because Obama was virtually uncontested]
