Which party will win the national popular vote in the 2028 presidential election?
2.8 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.Elección2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualDemocratic Party 91.8%+2.8ptLíder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
1
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+2.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado5 nov 26, 23:13 UTC8 nov 28, 12:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Which party will win the popular vote in the 2028 Presidential election?
Manifold MarketsJD Vance gets at least 45% of the popular vote in 2028 Presidential Election
Manifold MarketsGavin Newsom gets at least 45% of the popular vote in 2028 Presidential Election
Manifold MarketsWhich states will join the National Popular Vote Compact?
KalshiIf the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact comes into effect before 2029, will the Supreme Court block it?
Manifold MarketsWill the National Popular Vote compact reach 270 electoral votes?
KalshiReglas
Resolves to the party of the presidential candidate with the most votes nationwide in the November 7, 2028 election, using certified first-preference vote totals from the 50 states and DC.
- Only the party matters: a Democratic or Republican nominee counts as that party even if also listed on other parties' lines.
- Anyone else resolves to Other, or to their own answer if one has been added.
