¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally??

Manifold Markets cotiza China al 71.5% a fecha de 27 de octubre de 2026.

Where will human germline gene editing resulting in a live birth first occur legally?

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China 71.5%

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multiple choice

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Cambio 7d

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Actualizado hace 16 horas

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12 may 25, 2:03 UTC2 ene 40, 2:55 UTC

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Resultado24hProbabilidad

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This resolves to the location where the gene editing occurs, which may be different from the location where the baby is born.

Not all answers are mutually exclusive.
For example, if it occurred in a semi-autonomous charter city within the borders of the US, then both answers would resolve YES.
Background reading from Gene Smith for those interested:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DfrSZaf3JC8vJdbZL/how-to-make-superbabies