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| # | Name | Price | 1h % | 24h % | 7d % | Market Cap | Volume(24h) | Circulating Supply | Last 7 Days |
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When will U.S. ground forces first enter Iranian territory? (April 2026)
17dManifold MarketsSin KYCAlertas
Sigue este mercado para crear alertas.
Contexto del pronóstico
Pronóstico comunitario actual
April 8 - 14 2.3%
Pronosticadores
15
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
DesactualizadoÚltima actualización: 12 abr, 21:17
Resuelve
30 abr 2026, 23:59
MetodologÃa
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-
Comenzó 8 abr 2026, 3:52Termina 30 abr 2026, 23:59
Tendencias
Resultado24hProbabilidad
Reglas
This market will resolve to YES for the bucket corresponding to the Washington, D.C. (Eastern Time) date that conventional or special operations ground forces of the United States first physically enter the sovereign land territory of Iran. All other options will resolve to NO.
- If no such confirmation occurs by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Not in April 2026.
- Sovereign Land Territory: Includes the Iranian mainland and internationally recognized Iranian islands (e.g., Kharg Island, Abu Musa, Sirri Island), as well as physically boarding and occupying Iranian-flagged offshore oil platforms within Iranian territorial waters.
- Ground Forces: Implies intentional "boots on the ground" deployments for the purpose of combat, raiding, sabotage, or occupation. This includes both conventional infantry/armor units (e.g., Marines, Army Airborne) and special operations forces (e.g., Navy SEALs, Delta Force, Army Rangers).
- Resolution will be based on official government or military announcements from the United States (e.g., Department of Defense press releases, Presidential addresses), or strong, corroborated consensus reporting from top-tier, credible international news organizations (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WSJ) confirming the specific date the physical incursion began.
- Exclusions (NOT a YES):
Temas
PolÃticaGeopolÃticaCommodities
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