Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBy end of 2037 84.1%Líder entre 11 opciones
Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado5 feb 26, 9:06 UTC31 dic 39, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiReglas
Resolution Criteria:
- Resolves YES for an option if, by that date, space-based data centers meet ALL of:
- Location: In space (beyond the Kármán line, 100km altitude)
- Aggregate capacity: ≥10GW total power draw capacity across all qualifying space-based data center infrastructure, cumulative across all operators and facilities
- AI compute: Each contributing facility must be used for machine learning workloads (training or inference)
- Power accounting: Counts power draw by compute equipment (GPUs/TPUs/accelerators, CPUs, memory, networking, cooling).
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volumen total
- 225,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 157 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 348,3 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will there be ≥10GW of data center capacity in space??
- Manifold Markets cotiza By end of 2037 al 84% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will there be ≥10GW of data center capacity in space??
- Está previsto que When will there be ≥10GW of data center capacity in space? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2039.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will there be ≥10GW of data center capacity in space??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria: