Pronóstico comunitario actual
2027-2028 34%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
14
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
8 oct 25, 18:11 UTC1 ene 36, 19:07 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Us market crash in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsUS economic state at the end of 2026?
PolymarketWill there be a Trump economic boom?
KalshiUS economic recession in 2026?
FutuurReglas
Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the calendar date of the S&P 500’s last all‑time closing high (price index) immediately preceding the next “bubble burst,” defined as a ≥35% peak‑to‑trough decline in the S&P 500 closing level that is reached within 18 months and occurs in a window spanning from 6 months before to 12 months after the official start month of the next U.S. recession as dated by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
- The qualifying peak date is the resolution date.
- Data sources: NBER recession dates and announcements; S&P 500 daily close on FRED.
- Measurement details: use the S&P 500 price index daily close (no dividends), peak and trough measured on closing values, and the drawdown threshold is calculated as (trough_close − peak_close) / peak_close ≤ −35% within 18 months of the peak.
- If multiple peaks satisfy the criteria for the same recession window, resolve to the earliest qualifying peak date.
Mercados abiertos
CryptoKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 9pm EDT?
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,100 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 566,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 548,4 mil €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.2pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 resultados más
POLYMARKETBitcoin above ___ on September 9?
- 72,000+0.5pt100%
- 74,000+0.7pt100%
- 68,000+0.1pt100%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETWhat price will Bitcoin hit in September?
- ↑ 80,000+31.4pt100%
- ↓ 77,500100%
- ↑ 77,500100%
+22 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 12,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 248,7 mil €
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
- What price will Bitcoin hit on September 8?
- What price will Bitcoin hit September 7-13?
- Ethereum above ___ on September 9?
- What price will Ethereum hit in September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Bitcoin above ___ on September 10?
- What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?
- Will BTC hit $50,000 before $100,000?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will the next big economic crash occur??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2027-2028 al 34% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will the next big economic crash occur??
- Está previsto que When will the next big economic crash occur? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2036.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will the next big economic crash occur??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria