Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2027 48%Líder entre 8 opciones
Pronosticadores
20
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+15.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado5 ene 26, 8:30 UTC31 dic 30, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
a lot of valuations in the market are high by historical standards. most pundits agree that this is due to strong believes about the value of AI and the promises of AGI.
- A "crash" is understood to be a more than 15% downward correction in the market within a week where the Economist (as proxy for good punditry) writes that this is mostly or exclusively due to changing believes in AI and AI-fuelled valuations.
Mercados abiertos
AI
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+72.4pt74.5%
- September 23+11.6pt13.7%
- September 24+3.8pt4.9%
+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 269,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 199,9 mil €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-4.0pt27%
- Mark Carney-3.0pt19%
- Pope Leo XIV-7.0pt9%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,3 M €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 4,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 107,5 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.4pt70.3%
- ChatGPT-0.9pt13.9%
- Gemini-1.7pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,3 M €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.2pt99%
- OpenAI+0.6pt1%
- Meta0%
+18 resultados más
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Volumen total
- 85 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 65,3 mil €
- Best AI this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Next GPT Luna Model (5.7+) released on?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will the AI bubble crash??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2027 al 48% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will the AI bubble crash??
- Está previsto que When will the AI bubble crash? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will the AI bubble crash??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: a lot of valuations in the market are high by historical standards. most pundits agree that this is due to strong believes about the value of AI and the promises of AGI.