Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualBefore 2027-06-01 92.3%+1.4ptLíder entre 38 opciones
Pronosticadores
73
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
+1.4 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 minutos
15 mar 24, 14:03 UTC1 ene 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
0%
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Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
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Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessReglas
The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.
- It could be a Starlink satellite, a commercial satellite from another company, or a scientific satellite even if it is launched pro bono.
- Mass simulator or meme payloads like Elon's car do not count.
- The payload should be deployed into the desired initial orbit (or an orbit close enough that it could be corrected by the satellite itself).
- The market will resolve even if the satellite itself malfunctions after the deployment.
- I do not bet on my own questions.
Mercados abiertos
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- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
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- Volumen total
- 2,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 85,3 mil €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
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- Volumen 24h
- 39,2 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 409,9 mil €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
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KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will Starship first launch with useful payload??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2027-06-01 al 92% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will Starship first launch with useful payload??
- Está previsto que When will Starship first launch with useful payload? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will Starship first launch with useful payload??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.