Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNot before 2027 97%Líder entre 14 opciones
Pronosticadores
41
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado16 oct 23, 7:49 UTC31 dic 26, 13:29 UTC
Tendencias
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
Manifold MarketsManifold Monthly Active Traders at end of 2027
Manifold MarketsLife360 monthly active users in Q3
KalshiWill Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsSpotify monthly active users in Q3
KalshiMercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in Q3
KalshiReglas
other = before 2024
- Will look at the stat page.
- If it reads 100k, resolves to the relevant bucket.
- I don't plan on doing detective work if it's manipulated.
- Having said that, if a considerable amount of traffic is fraudulent (e.g., 20%) I will possibly delay resolution to make necessary adjustments for blatant-bulk-manipulation.
- I'm not excluding alts, 10 person bot farms, whatever
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 132,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,3 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 322,4 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Not before 2027 al 97% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders??
- Está previsto que When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will Manifold reach 100,000 Monthly active traders??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: other = before 2024