¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will be the next year that a presidential candidate gets at least 500 electoral votes??

Manifold Markets cotiza Before 2040 al 20.8% a fecha de 19 de octubre de 2026.

When will be the next year that a presidential candidate gets at least 500 electoral votes?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Before 2040 20.8%

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Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 9 horas

Desactualizado

30 ene 24, 15:06 UTC1 ene 01, 5:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolves to the next year that a single POTUS candidate gets at least 500 votes in the Electoral College.

Faithless electors could affect this (i.e., if the candidate wins 500 votes in the election, but then one of their electors votes for someone else, it doesn't count).
If the years in which elections occur change so that it happens in between these ranges, I resolve to whichever year it is closest to.