Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actual
<2035 62%Líder entre 7 opciones
<2035 62%Pronosticadores
36
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado5 jun 24, 2:26 UTC2 ene 35, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
By what year will the most FLOP intensive run have been conducted or owned by the US federal government? Resolves Yes on all later years.
- Qualifying events:
- Any arrangement (contractors, national labs etc.) under which the US government employees have the right to control what queries are run on the model.
- Any international collaboration where the US retains model query veto rights, but does not include international collaboration where the US is a stakeholder having e.g. a minority vote.
- If the US government seizes control over the current most FLOP-intensive pre-existing AI this qualifies.
- Any unanticipated event which clearly satisfies the spirit of this question
