Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualQ3-Q4 2024 89.2%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado2 ago 23, 23:22 UTC31 dic 26, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
0.5%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiReglas
"Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.
- But the question will resolve positively if it shows matching or better performance on at least 3 benchmarks that are reasonably standard at the time and somewhat general purpose (not specialized on maths, coding or some other narrow class of reasoning).
- Open-source means that both the code and the weights are openly available, regardless of the license.
Mercados abiertos
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- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
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- 135,2 mil €
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- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
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- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Q3-Q4 2024 al 89% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4??
- Está previsto que When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: "Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.