Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 16 jul 2026, 2:10 UTC · política pm-quality-2
Pronóstico comunitario actual
Before the end of May 2024 0%Líder entre 25 opciones
Pronosticadores
32
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 10 días
Desactualizado7 abr 24, 21:501 ene 27, 4:59
Tendencias
Solo fondos simulados, sin dinero realNo es asesoramiento financiero
Resultado elegido
Before the end of Jan 20251%
Tendencia de volumen
$51015 jul2d de datos16 jul
Mercados Relacionados
Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
354,3 €Sí: 95.3%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSIf Manifold deems AGI to have been achieved, will Manifold also agree that the singularity has occurred?
208,6 €Sí: 31%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2030?
200,2 €Sí: 8%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
0 €Sí: 70%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
36,7 mil €Before 2027: 7%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
22,2 mil €December 31: 6%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActivos en estos temas
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DeepMind CEO Says AGI Will Be Bigger Than Electricity or FireDecryptReglas
Resolution criteria same as this polymarket market, except the deadline is different here
- https://polymarket.com/event/will-an-ai-win-the-5-million-ai-math-olympiad-prize-before-august