Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 20:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actual
>=2030 69.2%Líder entre 7 opciones
>=2030 69.2%Pronosticadores
39
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado1 ene 24, 17:57 UTC9 ene 30, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will software engineers' inflation-adjusted salaries finally re-reach their 2021 levels?
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Manifold MarketsWill software engineers' inflation-adjusted salaries reach their 2021 levels by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the median reported total compensation for L3 software engineers at Google exceed $300,000 before 2030?
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This market is necessarily slightly subjective.
- I will be tentatively operationalizing the question as:
- The median (CPI-adjusted) salary for most software engineers dropping to ~50% below the 2021 all-time-high, OR
- The number of software engineers in the United States dropping by ~50%, OR
- Some combination of the above of the same significance (e.g. 25% salary drop + 25% dropout).
- I will probably be looking at the BLS summaries or the levels.fyi end-of-year report unless someone in the comments suggests a better source.