Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual>=2030 30.3%Líder entre 5 opciones
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado25 feb 26, 4:11 UTC31 dic 30, 12:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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PolymarketReglas
This resolves positive when a credible public report describes a fully autonomous upgrade to an app or website of a company worth more than $100M that outperforms the previous version under an A/B test or similarly rigorous measurement.
- I will try to resolve to when the upgrade occurred, rather than when the report was published. "Fully autonomous" means the upgrade was designed, implemented, tested, and deployed by automated systems; human involvement is limited to setting up the system and requesting an upgrade.
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The performance metric will be determined by whatever metric the company chooses to measure performance in their A/B test, not by any specific predefined metric.
- Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The performance metric used to evaluate the upgrade can be any metric chosen by the company conducting the A/B test.
- There is no restriction on what constitutes a valid performance metric.
Mercados abiertos
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
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+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
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- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
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- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test?
- Manifold Markets cotiza >=2030 al 30% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test?
- Está previsto que When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will a fully autonomous app/site upgrade outperform in an A/B test?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This resolves positive when a credible public report describes a fully autonomous upgrade to an app or website of a company worth more than $100M that outperforms the previous version under an A/B test or similarly rigorous measurement.