What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?
FedWeeklyIATecnología4aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual80% to 90% 25%Líder entre 7 opciones
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2
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multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado10 jun 26, 10:59 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
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Reglas
Resolves to the share of US adults (18–64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).
- If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
- Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
- Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
- How phone and assistant usage counts
- The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 80% to 90% al 25% a fecha de 23 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030??
- Está previsto que What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves to the share of US adults (18–64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).