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What share of US adults will use generative AI at least weekly by the end of 2030?

FedWeeklyIA Tecnología4a

Manifold MarketsSin KYC

Pronóstico comunitario actual

Less than 40% 2.1%

Líder entre 7 opciones

Pronosticadores

4

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 4 minutos

10 jun 26, 11:0131 dic 30, 23:59

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Resultado elegido

Less than 40%2%

Apuesta (USDT)

Reglas

Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).

If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
How phone and assistant usage counts
The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.

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Reglas

Resolves to the share of US adults (18-64) who report using generative AI in the past week, for any purpose (work or personal), in the latest available 2030 reading of the Real-Time Population Survey (RPS — Bick, Blandin & Deming, tracked in the Federal Reserve's "Monitoring AI Adoption" series).

If the RPS stops publishing a comparable weekly-use measure, resolution falls back to the closest equivalent nationally representative survey: Pew Research Center first, then Gallup ("use AI at least a few times a week" or nearest equivalent; population-wide if available, otherwise workers).
Resolves when the final 2030 reading is published (expected early 2031).
Trading closes Dec 31, 2030.
How phone and assistant usage counts
The RPS is a self-report survey: it defines generative AI with named examples (ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, etc.) and asks whether you used it in the past week.