Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 70.8%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado25 nov 24, 19:03 UTC31 dic 99, 5:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiReglas
Resolves as a percentage according to the most official figure I can find.
- For reference, this would be 31% as of 2024.
- Resolves NA if human civilization ends before then.
Mercados abiertos
ReligionKALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No88%
- Yes-38.0pt12%
- Volumen total
- 10,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 9,5 mil €
POLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Volumen total
- 56,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 9,2 mil €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Pietro Parolin-0.8pt4%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 118 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,3 €
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No-0.5pt90%
- Yes+0.5pt10%
- Volumen total
- 797,6 €
- Volumen 24h
- —
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volumen total
- 674,1 €
- Volumen 24h
- —
FUTUURRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Volumen total
- 3,1 €
- Volumen 24h
- —
- GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 71% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100??
- Está previsto que What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2099.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What percentage of humans will follow Christianity in 2100??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves as a percentage according to the most official figure I can find.