Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 71.4%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado30 oct 22, 16:44 UTC1 ene 00, 8:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
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KalshiReglas
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baryonic_dark_matter
- This resolves once we have a definitive explanation for dark matter that is not contested by any significant fraction of the physics community.
- In the event that the phrase "dark matter" comes to mean something else (such as our observational methods improving to the point where we can directly detect some forms of dark matter and we no longer call them "dark"), the 2022 definition is what will matter for the purposes of resolving this market.
- In the event that dark matter doesn't exist (e.g. modified Newtonian dynamics), this resolves N/A. I'll be pretty liberal in terms of what counts as "matter" though, in the event of disagreement over whether some new particle should qualify.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 226,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 125,2 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 108,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
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- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 resultados más
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de What percentage of dark matter is baryonic??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 71% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve What percentage of dark matter is baryonic??
- Está previsto que What percentage of dark matter is baryonic? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2100.
- ¿Cómo se liquida What percentage of dark matter is baryonic??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baryonic_dark_matter