¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will we know what dark matter is before 2028??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 92% a fecha de 28 de octubre de 2026.

¿Cuándo se resuelve Will we know what dark matter is before 2028??

Está previsto que Will we know what dark matter is before 2028? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.

Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 92%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 46 minutos

Retrasado

25 sept 26, 14:57 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2028, there is a confirmed and widely accepted scientific discovery identifying the physical nature or specific constituent of dark matter.
For a "YES" resolution, the discovery must satisfy both of the following:
Scientific Publication: A peer-reviewed paper is published in a major scientific journal (such as Nature, Science, or Physical Review Letters) announcing the direct detection or identification of a specific dark matter candidate (e.g., WIMPs, axions, sterile neutrinos, or primordial black holes) with a statistical significance of at least 5 sigma (five standard deviations).
Official Endorsement: The discovery is officially acknowledged or formally endorsed as a confirmed detection of dark matter by a leading international scientific body or research institution (e.g., CERN, NASA, ESA, or the American Physical Society).
If there is no peer-reviewed, 5 sigma significant confirmation of the identity of dark matter officially endorsed by December 31, 2026, the market resolves to NO.