US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
One-OffMacro & EconomyBonds & TreasuriesChinaGeopolítica3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 97.5%
Pronosticadores
66
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado7 abr 25, 21:42 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Reglas
The market will resolve YES if the United States government intentionally fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on Treasury securities held by Chinese entities (including the Chinese government, Chinese banks, or other Chinese state-owned enterprises) by their due date at any time before 2027.
- The default must involve at least $100 million USD in missed payments.
- If the US restructures, delays, or partially reduces payments specifically on Chinese-held debt while maintaining payments to other creditors, this will be considered a selective default and resolve as YES.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de US defaults on debt held by China before 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 98% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve US defaults on debt held by China before 2027??
- Está previsto que US defaults on debt held by China before 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida US defaults on debt held by China before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The market will resolve YES if the United States government intentionally fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on Treasury securities held by Chinese entities (including the Chinese government, Chinese banks, or other Chinese state-owned enterprises) by their due date at any time before 2027.