US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?
One-OffMacro y economíaBonos y TesoroChinaGeopolítica2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 97.5%
Pronosticadores
66
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 minutos
7 abr 25, 21:42 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Reglas
The market will resolve YES if the United States government intentionally fails to make scheduled interest or principal payments on Treasury securities held by Chinese entities (including the Chinese government, Chinese banks, or other Chinese state-owned enterprises) by their due date at any time before 2027.
- The default must involve at least $100 million USD in missed payments.
- If the US restructures, delays, or partially reduces payments specifically on Chinese-held debt while maintaining payments to other creditors, this will be considered a selective default and resolve as YES.