Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 26 oct 2026, 9:52 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 83.5%
Pronosticadores
466
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado31 mar 25, 14:57 UTC30 nov 28, 23:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?
KalshiWill Trump's attempt to run for the 3rd term be blocked by court(s)?
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Manifold MarketsMidterms: which issue matters most to voters?
KalshiReglas
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump makes a serious effort to run for office.
- This means he takes legal steps towards running for office like filing with the FEC or he goes to court to argue that he should be allowed to run again.
- It is not necessary for this market that he actually succeeds in getting on the ballot.
- A serious attempt to get in is enough.
- However, If he got on the ballot anywhere this market would certainly resolve YES.
- If Trump dies before he made an effort but still could the market resolves N/A. Backing out due to health reasons will otherwise resolve as NO.