Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 74.6%
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43
Tipo de pregunta
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado6 abr 25, 0:18 UTC20 ene 29, 23:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Trump impose martial law before his term ends?
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PolymarketReglas
-Must occur by the end of the current term: January 20th, 2029.
- -Must be generally declared nationwide, or at least across a large region (it's okay if there are specific areas exempted from it, for example).
- -Must be declared by the Trump administration.
- If Trump is impeached and the next president declares martial law this will not resolve YES.
- -Invoking the Insurrection Act does not automatically equate to declaring martial law nationwide, but if the Insurrection Act was invoked and its powers used in such a way that consensus media reporting characterized the deployment as "declaring martial law" then yes, this could resolve YES.
- -Will not be resolved YES on a technicality, like "Trump declares a national day of mourning and martial law is declared across the country for 1 second for some archaic legal purpose" or something silly like this, idk what form this might take, but I reserve the right to not resolve YES based on some technicality like this.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Trump declares nationwide martial law??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 75% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Trump declares nationwide martial law??
- Está previsto que Trump declares nationwide martial law? se resuelva el 20 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Trump declares nationwide martial law??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: -Must occur by the end of the current term: January 20th, 2029.