Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 99%
Pronosticadores
35
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 44 minutos
1 oct 22, 15:22 UTC2 ene 29, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
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KalshiReglas
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2029.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month
- Close date updated to 2029-01-01 11:59 pm
Mercados abiertos
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
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- <40-5.5pt12.1%
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- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
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- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 99% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029?
- Está previsto que This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029 se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2029.