This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
One-OffTecnologíaNegocios y empresas2mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 99.3%
Pronosticadores
99
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 35 minutos
8 abr 22, 16:05 UTC2 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028
Manifold MarketsWill GiveWell fund HPV vaccination to prevent cervical cancer by 1st January 2027?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2027.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, you can bet the first M$20 for free.
