Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 99%
Pronosticadores
33
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 51 minutos
Retrasado1 oct 22, 6:06 UTC2 ene 28, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
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This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month