¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de The head of state of which [country] will first officially be named [title] of that country??

Manifold Markets cotiza None before 2070 al 55.8% a fecha de 19 de octubre de 2026.

The head of state of which [country] will first officially be named [title] of that country?

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

None before 2070 55.8%

Líder entre 12 opciones

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

multiple choice

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Cambio 7d

0.0 pts

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 7 horas

Desactualizado

8 feb 24, 17:23 UTC1 ene 70, 22:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Reglas

Whichever combination of title and country comes to be first will be the chosen answer.

Note that only the official title is necessary, even if they are e.g. still chosen by regular elections.
The answer needs to be the official title or a generally accepted English translation of the title.
Resolves as 'Yes' for an option if the name of the title would be as listed if its holder had a different gender (e.g. 'Tsarina' or 'Tsaritsa' instead of 'Tsar').
Does not count if the country ceases to meaningfully exist or as long as it retains less that 10% of the territory it had in January 2024.
A country changing its name can still resolve as 'Yes', e.g. if Iran becomes Persia and gets a Shah, it would count.