Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 65.6%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado9 sept 24, 8:01 UTC30 mar 29, 15:59 UTC
Tendencias
0.4%
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the first crewed Starship to Mars launch within 4 years as Elon Musk says?
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PolymarketReglas
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
- "Starship launch" = launch to Mars
- in 2026/2028 = in the relevant launch window, no problem if the actual launch is in 2027/2029
- Update 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A launch must actually occur (visible movement off the pad).
- The mission's stated objective must be at least to reach Martian orbit; landing also qualifies.
- A planned Mars flyby is not sufficient.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
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- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No Starship launch in 2026, no Starship launch in 2028 al 66% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix?
- Está previsto que Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix se resuelva el 30 de marzo de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Starship to Mars Multi-choice Matrix?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833