Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 59.6%
Pronosticadores
28
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 15 horas
Desactualizado22 dic 24, 6:14 UTC1 jul 28, 6:59 UTC
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Will a paper come out (published or accepted/interesting/believed widely) which is a major advancement in P=NP, and has been created by AI/etc/agents or significantly advanced by them, by end of June 30 2028
- Paper must either be available, or totally confirmed to be valid (e.g. Terence Tao clearly states it's legit, or similar) and on the way to publication.
- It doesn't have to be a paper, some future thing which has a similar effect is okay (effect = changing behavior, beliefs, statements about, or elite evaluations of the truthfullness of related statements; if in the future such things are done by other methods, we do our best to understand that.
- Lack of human intelligibility isn't a blocker as long as we have reason to believe it's true.
- Update 2024-23-12 (PST): - Market will resolve positively for any major advancement in understanding P=NP, including proofs that P≠NP (AI summary of creator comment)