SOAI#8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis)
One-OffIAChinaTecnologíaGeopolíticaManifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoEste mercado se resolvió: Yes (93%)
Resuelto: 11 oct 2026, 21:09
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 13 oct 2026, 12:32 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes93%
No7%
Ganada
Perdida
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This market resolves to YES or NO as per the 2026 State of AI Report's self grading of its prediction #8: A Chinese lab overtakes the US lab dominated frontier on a major leaderboard (e.g. LMArena/Artificial Analysis).
- If they do not issue a ruling by EOY 2026, I will resolve by asking Anthropic's best model to evaluate based on their exact wording.
