Outcome of the 2026 US Midterm election
0.4 pts (24h)One-OffPolíticaElecciónPolítica de EE. UU.Elecciones de mitad de mandato de EE. UU. 20263m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Democrats control Congress 63.9%-0.4ptLíder entre 4 opciones
Democrats control Congress 63.9%-0.4ptPronosticadores
98
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-1.1 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 horas
Desactualizado4 jul 23, 14:47 UTC31 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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FutuurReglas
Update 2025-07-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia page for the United States Congress: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Congress.
- Independents will be counted based on which party they caucus with.
- A tie in the Senate will be resolved by the Vice President's party.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Republican senators vote with the Democratic bloc more than 50% of the time, they will be counted as caucusing with Democrats and considered under Democratic control.
- While Wikipedia will be the primary source, the creator will use their judgment if facts substantially diverge from Wikipedia's assessment of "control".
- Update 2025-11-13 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve immediately after the election is finalized based on Wikipedia's assessment of control at that time.
