Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 79.4%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado4 dic 25, 3:24 UTC31 dic 35, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
From the MIT AI Risk Initiative: "Loss of life - Accidental or deliberate loss of life, including suicide, extinction or cessation, due to the use or misuse of a technology system."
- This market is about whether a deployed AI system will be blamed for a large loss of life.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by 31 December 2035, there is a publicly available:
- official report from a government, regulator, court, accident/incident body, or major international organisation (WHO, UN, ICAO, etc.), or
- article from a major reputable news organisation (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT, WSJ, The Guardian) that credibly reports such a finding,
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.6pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt12.6%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 87,4 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-8.5pt65%
- November 30,-5.0pt50%
+7 resultados más
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 228,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt19.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.7%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.55%99%
- Above 2.05%99%
- Above 2.25%99%
+6 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 239,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 53,3 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 79% a fecha de 20 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035??
- Está previsto que [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2035.
- ¿Cómo se liquida [MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: From the MIT AI Risk Initiative: "Loss of life - Accidental or deliberate loss of life, including suicide, extinction or cessation, due to the use or misuse of a technology system."