Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 87.9%
Pronosticadores
49
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado19 abr 26, 2:14 UTC7 ene 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
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Manifold MarketsReglas
In order to resolve yes, all of the following items need to be established by preponderance of the evidence:
- The incident occurs in 2026.
- The company has a market cap (by stock price if public, by valuation of latest round if private) over $10 billion prior to the incident.
- The incident consists of damage inflicted by an AI agent which was intentionally activated by company insiders, but was not intended to damage the company.
- For example, a Claude Code instance that was intended to respond to customer service questions ends up irrecoverably deleting an important database.
- It doesn't matter if the agent framework is a public product or an internal company product.
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
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+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 132,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,3 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
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- 9,1 M €
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
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- 1480+-1.0pt66%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 88% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026??
- Está previsto que Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026? se resuelva el 7 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: In order to resolve yes, all of the following items need to be established by preponderance of the evidence: