Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNobody 89.8%Líder entre 18 opciones
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado8 ago 25, 21:49 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
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PolymarketReglas
If LWCW 2026 does not take place this market resolves as N/A.
- The market will resolve to which person does in fact give the keynote, not only who is announced as doing so.
- This may matter if someone has to cancel last minute.
- Giving the keynote remotely or as a video recording counts.
- Zvi house rules apply.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS]?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Nobody al 90% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS]?
- Está previsto que LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS] se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida LWCW 2026 keynote speaker [ADD OPTIONS]?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If LWCW 2026 does not take place this market resolves as N/A.