Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 68.9%
No 68.9%Pronosticadores
16
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado29 ago 23, 0:23 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
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It has been suggested that LLMs could be used to ingest large amounts of economic data (accounting books, economic facts about a community) to create an oracle capable of answering questions relevant to policy.
- For instance one could take 'a small village' (as Tyler Cowen put it) and train a LLM on a wide array of unstructured data to implicitly model the village's economy.
- An agency such as a central bank could then use the trained LLM to predict the effects of policy decisions, e.g. what would the effect on unemployment be if the interest rate rose by 0.25%?
- Will at least one central bank or government of an OECD country publicly disclose having trained such a model with the intention to use it, by Dec 31, 2026?
- Releasing a working paper or equivalent official communication with details of the training and intended application would count towards a YES resolution.
- Merely speculating on possible applications or declaring that such a project is in process would not.
