Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 57.7%
Pronosticadores
11
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado6 mar 25, 4:48 UTC9 jun 69, 10:09 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3?
Manifold MarketsWill @martinrandall sleeping beauty market resolve before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketReglas
Same resolution criteria as Martin Randall's market but with every instance of the word '1/3' replaced with the word '1/2'.
- Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definition of a word:
- A word is defined as a group of consecutive characters surrounded by whitespace.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 226,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 125,2 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 108,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 resultados más
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 58% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2??
- Está previsto que Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2? se resuelva el 9 de junio de 2069.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/2??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Same resolution criteria as Martin Randall's market but with every instance of the word '1/3' replaced with the word '1/2'.