Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 64.1%
Pronosticadores
80
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
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Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado28 jun 23, 2:39 UTC28 oct 30, 11:33 UTC
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KalshiReglas
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem
- The Sleeping Beauty problem is a puzzle in decision theory in which whenever an ideally rational epistemic agent is awoken from sleep, they have no memory of whether they have been awoken before.
- Upon being told that they have been woken once or twice according to the toss of a coin, once if heads and twice if tails, they are asked their degree of belief for the coin having come up heads.
- Resolves based on the consensus position of academic philosophers once a supermajority consensus is established.
- Close date extends until a consensus is reached.
- Self-locating belief and the Sleeping Beauty problem, Adam Elga (2000) - https://www.princeton.edu/~adame/papers/sleeping/sleeping.pdf
Mercados abiertos
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 64% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3??
- Está previsto que Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3? se resuelva el 28 de octubre de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is the answer to the Sleeping Beauty Problem 1/3??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sleeping_Beauty_problem