Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month 100%Líder entre 4 opciones
Pronosticadores
23
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 31 minutos
9 ago 24, 21:51 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
100%
0%
0%
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Based on this post:
- [tweet]Separate markets for each of the three clauses, plus one for all three of them being true.
- Operationalizations:
- "Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems": Minimal problems is somewhat subjective, but I'll interpret it as meaning there's nothing big and glaring that's reported right away.
- "the named outcome": Resolves when the mission flies, not when the contract is awarded. "with cargo" = no crew, more stuff in it than there was on the previous uncrewed demo.
- "Starliner-1": The next crewed Starliner flight, whether it uses the Starliner-1 designation or not.
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- No56.5%
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- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
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- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
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- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Starliner returns uncrewed with minimal problems in the next month al 100% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out??
- Está previsto que Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is Eric Berger right about how the Starliner saga will play out??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Based on this post: