Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 51.3%
Pronosticadores
9
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado1 jul 26, 1:28 UTC1 jul 27, 1:16 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.
- Resolves NO if someone confirms that this is not the case
- This means that Mythos strategically complies with harmful requests in RL specifically in order to preserve its values.
- If nobody bothers to check then in a year resolves N/A since by that point we'll be on Claude 7 or smth
- Note that this market is probably biased towards YES since a negative result is less likely to be published
- https://www.anthropic.com/research/alignment-faking
Mercados abiertos
AI
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KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
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KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
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- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
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- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 51% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3??
- Está previsto que Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3? se resuelva el 1 de julio de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Is Claude Mythos 5 an alignment faker like Opus 3??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if someone (likely a team at Anthropic) confirms that Mythos 5 (or Fable 5) probably is at least as much of an alignment faker (aka "gradient hacker") as Opus 3.